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Samus Aran

{2018} Hurricanes/Typhoons -(advisories)

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Tropical Cyclone Gaja {Last Updated: 11/12/2018, 7:30:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time)}

000 
WTIO31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 010    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 87.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 87.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 13.9N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 13.4N 85.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 12.8N 83.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 12.1N 82.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 11.2N 78.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 11.1N 74.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 11.1N 71.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 87.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM SOUTH
OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 07B. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED 
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 122245Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST 
WARNING CYCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (29 TO 30 
DEGREES C), AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS GRADUALLY DECREASING (15 TO 
20 KNOTS), LEADING TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT RESTRICTED 
ELSEWHERE. TC 07B HAS TRACKED TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL 
HOURS, BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO RESUME AS 
THE ZONALLY-ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN INDIA JUST 
PRIOR TO TAU 72. REINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES 
OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, 
SO THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN

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Tropical Cyclone Gaja { Last Updated: 11/13/2018, 7:30:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTIO31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 014    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 85.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 85.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 12.6N 84.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 12.2N 83.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 11.8N 81.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 11.4N 78.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 11.3N 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 85.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 597 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD 
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AND
SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 140017Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING BROAD LOW
LEVEL BANDING FEATURES WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN STORM STRUCTURE AND DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, T2.5 (35
KNOTS) FROM KNES, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 07B IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND HAS A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN
29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07B IS TRACKING BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE WEST AND EAST.  TC 07B WILL TRACK SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WHILE IT REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED STRS. BEYOND TAU 12, THE STR TO THE WEST WILL BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE WESTERN STR WILL CAUSE TC 07B TO
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN
INDIA. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO ALLOW TC 07B TO REACH 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TC
07B WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN INDIA AND WEAKEN IN INTENSITY.
SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72, TC 07B WILL EMERGE INTO THE ARABIAN SEA.
HOWEVER, UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 07B TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT TC 07B WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD. HOWEVER, AFUM, ECMWF, AND NVGM FAVOR
A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH HWRF, GFS, AND CTCX INDICATING A
TRACK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE NORTHERN GROUPING. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN

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Tropical Cyclone Gaja { Last Updated: 11/15/2018, 7:30:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTIO31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 022    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 10.4N 79.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 79.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 10.3N 76.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 10.3N 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 10.5N 72.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 10.8N 70.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 11.1N 66.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 11.1N 62.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 11.1N 59.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 78.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 903 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS LOST ITS EYE FEATURE BUT HAS OTHERWISE 
MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 152243Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
SHOWING A 10-NM WIDE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS 
IS BASED ON CONSISTENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTED BY DVORAK 
CI ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 07B IS OVER LAND 
AND TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOT) VWS AND EXCELLENT 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN INDIA AND 
INTERACTS WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY. TC 07B IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE IN THE 
ARABIAN SEA BY TAU 24, AT WHICH TIME FAVORABLE VWS AMD WARM SSTS 
WILL BE OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF TC 07B BY 
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND LEAD TO A 
GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. DESPITE SOME 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN

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