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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 2 {1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020}

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 060247
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO 
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 105.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 105.6
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and a decrease in forward speed is expected through 
early Tuesday. The depression is forecast to remain nearly 
stationary through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday, 
and then little change in strength is forecast through midweek.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 {0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020}

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 060246
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192020
0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 105.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 105.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 105.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 {1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020}

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 060251
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is beginning to show better signs of 
organization tonight. Recent satellite imagery depicts a burst of 
deep convection near the estimated center of the depression with 
cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. This trend, 
along with recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, suggests the system may 
be nearing tropical storm strength. The initial intensity is 
perhaps conservatively held at 30 kt for this advisory based on 
earlier T2.0 classifications from TAFB and SAB.  

The estimated initial motion of the depression remains 340/6 kt. 
This general motion should continue through the overnight hours as 
the system is steered by a mid-level ridge over southern Mexico. 
As the ridge weakens through the middle of the week, the steering 
currents will break down and the system will likely meander well 
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico for several days. By 
days 4-5, global models indicate the ridge should rebuild over 
southern Mexico, which would eventually support a northwestward 
motion late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast track shows 
little change with this advisory, and remains close to the HFIP 
corrected consensus HCCA.  

The intensity forecast remains challenging with above average spread 
in the guidance. The environmental conditions generally appear 
favorable, with low to moderate deep-layer wind shear and warm sea 
surface temperatures. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance 
indicates gradual strengthening will occur over the next several 
days. However, global models including the GFS and ECMWF, along with 
the HWRF and HMON, forecast little intensity change or even 
weakening as the system meanders well offshore. This could be a 
product of the system struggling to separate from the Intertropical 
Convergence Zone (ITCZ), or possible upwelling as it drifts over the 
same general area for several days. Given these mixed signals in the 
guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains close to the previous 
advisory and only shows modest strengthening during the forecast 
period. This forecast still lies slightly above the IVCN and HCCA 
consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 13.3N 105.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 {0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020}

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 060248
PWSEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192020               
0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

10N 105W       34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

15N 105W       34  3   2( 5)   4( 9)   4(13)   8(21)   4(25)   X(25)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

10N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

15N 110W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   6(11)   4(15)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Norbert {Last Updated: 10/6/2020 5:00:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time)}

000 
WTPZ34 KNHC 060851
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 106.2W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 106.2 West. Norbert is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A decrease in 
forward speed is expected today, and Norbert is forecast to remain 
nearly stationary through midweek.
 
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds 
have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart

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