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Tropical Storm Kay {Last Updated: 9/4/2022 5:00:00 PM (Eastern Daylight Time)}

000 
WTPZ32 KNHC 042035
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 102.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was 
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 102.5 West. Kay is 
moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h) and a west to 
west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days, 
followed by a turn to the north.  Kay is expected to remain south of 
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to 
become a hurricane in a day or two.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical 
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header 
WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Kay are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are expected to reach the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Tuesday, and
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
RAINFALL:  Kay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm totals of 5 inches, across coastal portions of
southwestern Mexico from Guerrero northwestward to Jalisco over the
next few days.
 
WIND: Gusty winds are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico
in outer rainbands during the next couple of days.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Kay {Last Updated: 9/5/2022 5:00:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time)}

000 
WTPZ32 KNHC 050851
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022
 
...KAY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...OUTER BANDS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING IN PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 105.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula
should closely monitor the progress of Kay.  Watches may be required
for portions of the Baja California peninsula later today.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 105.3 West. Kay is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion 
with some reduction in forward speed is expected through tonight.  
A turn to the northwest and north-northwest is forecast to occur on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to 
pass south and southwest of southwestern Mexico today and tonight, 
then move toward the southern Baja California peninsula on 
Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected, and Kay 
is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or early Tuesday.  
Continued strengthening is forecast through midweek. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) 
primarily to the northeast of the center
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next several days, and are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells
are expected to reach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula by Tuesday. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
RAINFALL:  Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall,
with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of
the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides.
 
WIND: Gusty winds are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico
in outer rainbands during the next day or so.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

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  • Samus Aran changed the title to Hurricane Kay

Hurricane Kay {Last Updated: 9/7/2022 11:00:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time)}

000 
WTPZ32 KNHC 071443
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022
 
...KAY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 112.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula from San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin. The
Tropical Storm Warning has been extended on the east coast of Baja 
California from Bahia de Los Angeles northward over the entire 
northern coast of Gulf of California and southward along mainland 
Mexico to Guaymas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued on the 
west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Cabo San Quintin 
northward to the U.S./Mexico border.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then
southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Quintin to U.S./Mexico border
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located
near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 112.6 West. Kay is moving toward
the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion should
continue into Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Kay is
expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California
peninsula today, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula Thursday and Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast 
today. Although weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, Kay is 
expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes near the 
west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area beginning later this morning and are
forecast to spread northward through Friday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch on Friday.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal 
flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore 
winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the 
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by 
large and destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday
 
Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15
inches
 
Northwest Mainland Mexico:  2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6
inches
 
Southernmost California:  2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches
 
Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches
 
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern 
California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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