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Tropical Depression Nine {Last Updated: 9/23/2022 11:00:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time)}

000 
WTNT34 KNHC 231453
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
 
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 70.1W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine 
was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 70.1 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 
km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin later today and 
continue through Saturday, followed by a turn toward the 
west-northwest and northwest on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast 
track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the 
central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on 
Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday 
night and early Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and 
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. 
More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce the
following rainfall:
 
Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Northern Venezuela and Northern Colombia:
Additional 1 to 2 inches
 
Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches
 
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches
 
Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
inches.
 
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.
 
SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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  • Samus Aran changed the title to Tropical Depression Ian

Tropical Storm Ian {Last Updated: 9/23/2022 11:00:00 PM (Eastern Daylight Time)}

000 
WTNT34 KNHC 240244
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
 
...TROPICAL STORM IAN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY 
MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 72.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in western and central Cuba should monitor the progress
of Ian.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 72.0 West.  Ian is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A westward 
or west-northwestward motion is expected through early Sunday.  A 
turn toward the northwest is forecast late Sunday, followed by a 
north-northwestward turn by late Monday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea 
through Saturday, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass 
near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday.  Ian 
will then approach western Cuba on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Ian is 
expected to become a hurricane Sunday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday
night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:
 
Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches
 
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches
 
Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
inches
 
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.
 
Florida Keys and South Florida: Heavy rains begin as early as
Monday. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with this
rainfall.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.
 
Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Ian {Last Updated: 9/24/2022 5:00:00 PM (Eastern Daylight Time)}

000 
WTNT34 KNHC 242056
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 77.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Jamaica.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was 
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 77.0 West. Ian is moving 
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is 
expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn toward the 
northwest and north-northwest is forecast on Sunday and Monday, 
followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, 
the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica on 
Sunday, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands Sunday night and 
early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba late 
Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next
few days. Ian is forecast to become a hurricane by late Sunday and a
major hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and 
Cayman Brac by Sunday night.
 
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:
 
Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maxima up to 6 inches
 
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 10 inches
 
Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches
 
Florida Keys and southern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima
up to 6 inches through Tuesday evening
 
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.  Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out
through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.
 
Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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