Jump to content
Der Wille Zur Macht
Sign in to follow this  
Captain VG

{2019} Hurricanes/Typhoons -(advisories)

Recommended Posts

Tropical Storm Pabuk { Last Updated: 1/1/2019, 7:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 5.8N 108.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 5.8N 108.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 6.1N 107.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 6.5N 105.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 7.3N 103.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 8.2N 101.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 10.3N 98.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 12.3N 95.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 15.0N 93.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 5.9N 108.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z,
022100Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tropical Cyclone Penny { Last Updated: 1/1/2019, 7:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTPS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 009    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 12.9S 144.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 144.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 13.4S 147.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 14.1S 150.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 14.9S 152.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 15.7S 153.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 16.7S 154.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 17.6S 152.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 19.0S 149.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 145.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVING CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW OVER THE CORAL SEA. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND
AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, BETWEEN
THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 TO T3.0, RESPECTIVELY.  A
012314Z OSCAT PASS DEPICTS THE LLCC TOO FAR TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, IT
REVEALS A GROWING SWATH OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, AND OUTFLOW
CHANNELS ARE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED. TC 08P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. A
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THIS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE 
SOUTH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. BY TAU 48, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS 
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TRACK, RESULTING 
IN A DEFLECTION BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED VWS AND LIMITED 
OUTFLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DISSIPATION TREND AFTER TAU 48, AS 
PENNY TRACKS TOWARD THE QUEENSLAND COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 
022100Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tropical Storm Pabuk { Last Updated: 1/2/2019, 7:00:00 AM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PERL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z --- NEAR 6.1N 107.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.1N 107.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 6.5N 105.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 7.2N 103.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 8.2N 101.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 9.2N 99.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 10.8N 96.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 12.9N 93.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 15.8N 91.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 6.2N 106.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM SOUTH
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z.//
NNNN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tropical Cyclone Penny { Last Updated: 1/2/2019, 7:00:00 AM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTPS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 011    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 147.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 147.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 13.8S 151.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 14.7S 153.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 15.3S 154.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 15.7S 154.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 16.3S 154.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 17.6S 152.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 19.4S 148.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 148.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 18 
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION 
IS BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND A 021129Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED 
A LARGE SWATH OF 45 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. LOW (10-15 
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TC 08P 
WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE 
UNTIL AROUND TAU 36 WHEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL TURN 
THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE 
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. AFTERWARD, INCREASED VWS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW 
WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. EVERY MEMBER OF THE 
CONSENSUS DEPICTS THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN BUT VARIATION IN ALONG-
TRACK MOTION AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN CAUSE THE SPREAD TO GROW 
QUITE RAPIDLY. FOR THIS REASON, ALTHOUGH WE ARE CONFIDENT THE 
CYCLONE WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN 
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z 
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tropical Depression One { Last Updated: 1/4/2019, 1:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 

 

wtpn32 pgtw 042100
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/040521zjan2019//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert.//
Rmks/
1. Tropical depression 01w (one) warning nr 001    
   01 active tropical cyclones in northwestpac
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   041800z --- near 4.8n 174.0e
     movement past six hours - 320 degrees at 13 kts
     position accurate to within 025 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 025 kt, gusts 035 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   repeat posit: 4.8n 174.0e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   050600z --- 5.3n 173.8e
   Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   vector to 24 hr posit: 325 deg/ 04 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   051800z --- 6.0n 173.3e
   Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
                            000 nm southeast quadrant
                            020 nm southwest quadrant
                            040 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 36 hr posit: 305 deg/ 04 kts
    ---
   36 hrs, valid at:
   060600z --- 6.5n 172.6e
   Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
                            020 nm southeast quadrant
                            050 nm southwest quadrant
                            060 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 48 hr posit: 295 deg/ 07 kts
    ---
   extended outlook:
   48 hrs, valid at:
   061800z --- 7.1n 171.4e
   Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
                            010 nm southeast quadrant
                            040 nm southwest quadrant
                            060 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 72 hr posit: 295 deg/ 11 kts
    ---
   72 hrs, valid at:
   071800z --- 8.8n 167.3e
   Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 080 nm northeast quadrant
                            010 nm southeast quadrant
                            010 nm southwest quadrant
                            060 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 96 hr posit: 285 deg/ 15 kts
    ---
   long range outlook:
    ---
   96 hrs, valid at:
   081800z --- 10.3n 161.3e
   Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
                            020 nm southeast quadrant
                            010 nm southwest quadrant
                            070 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 120 hr posit: 280 deg/ 17 kts
    ---
   120 hrs, valid at:
   091800z --- 11.6n 154.4e
   Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 000 nm northeast quadrant
                            010 nm southeast quadrant
                            010 nm southwest quadrant
                            000 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 150 nm northeast quadrant
                            050 nm southeast quadrant
                            050 nm southwest quadrant
                            130 nm northwest quadrant
    ---
remarks:
042100z position near 4.9n 174.0e.
Tropical depression 01w (one), located approximately 217 nm
southeast of Majuro, Marshall Islands, has tracked northwestward at 
13 knots over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at 
041800z is 9 feet. Next warnings at 050300z, 050900z, 051500z and 
052100z. 
2. This cancels and supersedes ref a (wtpn21 pgtw 040530).//
Nnnn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tropical Cyclone Penny { Last Updated: 1/4/2019, 1:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

00 
WTPS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 020    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 155.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 155.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.8S 155.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 16.0S 155.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 16.2S 154.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.4S 152.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 16.6S 150.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 16.3S 149.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 15.6S 147.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 155.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO 
THE SOUTHWEST UNDER MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS). A 041626Z HIGH RESOLUTION AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS 
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE 
IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT A WELL DEFINED  LOW LEVEL 
STRUCTURE, WITH LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CENTER. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE ANIMATED 
3.9 MICRON INFRARED IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW 
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (40 KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 41 KTS 
AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 47 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF 
A 10 HOUR OLD ASCAT PASS, WHICH INDICATED A BROAD REGION OF 40 KNOT 
WINDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED 45 KNOT WINDBARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH (20-
25 KT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS, WARM SSTS (28-29 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE 
PAST 12 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHERE MODERATE LEVELS 
OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL 
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT BY TAU 24, TC 08P WILL 
GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. 
FROM TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SLIGHTLY MORE 
NORTHWESTWARD, AS A BUILDING STR OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA BECOMES THE 
DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM. HIGH VWS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH TAU 24, BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY THE HIGH SSTS, MODERATE OHC 
AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING TC 08P TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY 
THROUGH TAU 24. A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED 
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, AS VWS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND OUTFLOW
BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 48, STEADY WEAKENING IS 
FORECAST AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEAKENS AND VWS AGAIN INCREASES. MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A COUPLE OF 
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE 
OVERALL TRACK, WITH GFS BEING A SOUTHWARD OUTLIER, ABOUT 60NM 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS BUT FOLLOWING THE SAME TRACK. THE 
ECMWF IS THE WESTERN OUTLIER, TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A STRAIGHT TRACK 
TOWARDS CAIRNS. NAVGEM IS THE EXTREME NORTH AND EAST OUTLIER, TAKING 
THE SYSTEM NORTH THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOLOMONS RESULTING IN A 
MODEL SPREAD OF 610NM AT TAU 120. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL 
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 24 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z. REFER 
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY 
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tropical Cyclone Mona { Last Updated: 1/4/2019, 1:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTPS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 009    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 176.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 176.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 13.2S 176.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 13.8S 177.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.2S 178.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 17.0S 178.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 19.6S 176.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 22.0S 172.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 22.7S 167.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 176.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTION 
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 051816Z HIGH 
RESOLUTION WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED LOW LEVEL 
CONVECTIVE BANDS, PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, 
WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS 
HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) 
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (35 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE 
OF T3.2 (49 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 09P LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH MODERATE VWS (15-20 KNOTS), WARM SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) AND 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 09P HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE 
PAST 18 HOURS, MEANDERING IN A CLOCKWISE LOOP IN A WEAK STEERING 
PATTERN BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND 
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THE MOST RECENT 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS BEGUN TO TURN TO THE 
NORTHEAST, AND SHOULD TURN EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY TAU 24 AND SOUTH 
BY TAU 36 AS THE NER BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. BY TAU 
48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING ONTO A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK, 
PASSING OVER VITI LEVU, AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER AS THE 
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. TC 09P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF 
DECREASING VWS, IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, PEAKING AT 
65 KNOTS AT TAU 36. AFTER PASSING OVER VITI LEVU, INCREASING VWS AND 
DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO STEADILY WEAKEN TC 09P. MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS 
MEMBERS INDICATING THE TURN TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 
NEW CALEDONIA, WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK 
SPEED AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE EGRR AND GALWEM TRACKERS 
REMAIN THE FAR EASTERN OUTLIERS, TURNING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD WELL 
EAST OF FIJI. DUE TO THE OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL DATA, 
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC 
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR, THOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER BEYOND TAU 72, THAN 
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
041800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z,050900Z, 051500Z AND 
052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tropical Cyclone Pabuk { Last Updated: 1/4/2019, 1:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 8.6N 98.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 98.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 9.2N 97.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 9.8N 95.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 10.9N 93.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 11.9N 92.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 14.6N 90.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 98.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM NORTHEAST
OF PHUKET, THAILAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER LAND IN THE MALAY PENINSULA AND ABOUT TO EXIT INTO
THE ANDAMAN SEA. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COLLAPSED AS IT
DRAGGED ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS INTACT, AS EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP, AND WHERE THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND RCTP OF T2.5 AND T3.0, RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL

POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
TC 36W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE
ANDAMAN SEA WILL BE MARGINAL AND MAY SUPPORT A SUSTAINED 40-KNOT SYSTEM AT BEST.

INCREASING VWS AS TC 36W MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN IT,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, OR SOONER. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT TO THE OVERALL TRACK WITH NAVGEM AS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER ON THE
LEFT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, AND WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREADING AFTER TAU 72.

IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAI

D
JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 05090

0Z,
051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tropical Depression One { Last Updated: 1/5/2019, 1:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 

 

wtpn32 pgtw 052100
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical depression 01w (one) warning nr 005    
   01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   051800z --- near 4.6n 174.2e
     movement past six hours - 330 degrees at 06 kts
     position accurate to within 040 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 025 kt, gusts 035 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   repeat posit: 4.6n 174.2e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   060600z --- 4.9n 173.8e
   Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   vector to 24 hr posit: 300 deg/ 05 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   061800z --- 5.4n 173.0e
   Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   vector to 36 hr posit: 290 deg/ 07 kts
    ---
   36 hrs, valid at:
   070600z --- 5.9n 171.7e
   Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 000 nm northeast quadrant
                            000 nm southeast quadrant
                            000 nm southwest quadrant
                            050 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 48 hr posit: 285 deg/ 09 kts
    ---
   extended outlook:
   48 hrs, valid at:
   071800z --- 6.4n 170.0e
   Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
                            020 nm southeast quadrant
                            020 nm southwest quadrant
                            050 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 72 hr posit: 280 deg/ 12 kts
    ---
   72 hrs, valid at:
   081800z --- 7.3n 165.3e
   Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 080 nm northeast quadrant
                            000 nm southeast quadrant
                            000 nm southwest quadrant
                            080 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 96 hr posit: 280 deg/ 14 kts
    ---
   long range outlook:
    ---
   96 hrs, valid at:
   091800z --- 8.1n 159.9e
   Max sustained winds - 040 kt, gusts 050 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 080 nm northeast quadrant
                            010 nm southeast quadrant
                            090 nm southwest quadrant
                            070 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 120 hr posit: 275 deg/ 14 kts
    ---
   120 hrs, valid at:
   101800z --- 8.6n 154.3e
   Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 034 kt winds - 100 nm northeast quadrant
                            010 nm southeast quadrant
                            040 nm southwest quadrant
                            150 nm northwest quadrant
    ---
remarks:
052100z position near 4.7n 174.1e.
Tropical depression 01w (one), located approximately 234 nm
southeast of Majuro, Marshall Islands, has tracked north-
northwestward at 06 knots over the past six hours.
Maximum significant wave height at 051800z is 9 feet. Next
warnings at 060300z, 060900z, 061500z and 062100z.//
Nnnn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...