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{2019} Hurricanes/Typhoons -(advisories)

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Tropical Cyclone Penny { Last Updated: 1/5/2019, 1:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTPS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 024
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 156.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 156.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 16.6S 155.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 17.0S 154.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.3S 152.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 17.6S 151.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 17.5S 149.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 16.8S 147.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 15.8S 144.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 155.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER TOP OF AND
OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED EIR LOOP. THE POOR CONFIDENCE IS DUE TO THE CIRRUS CANOPY
COVERING THE LLCC AND THE LACK OF ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY
A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET
BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 08P
HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO ITS LOCATION IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE
NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE STR
TO THE SOUTH WILL BECOMING THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND WILL
CAUSE TC 08P TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STR
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. AS TC 08P TRACKS WESTWARD, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE INCREASING VWS WILL BE OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 08P TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 KNOTS THOUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, TC 08P WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND BEYOND TAU
96, LAND INTERACTION. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY
TAUS, HOWEVER, INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS SPREAD STEADILY THROUGH
TAU 120. BY LANDFALL, THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS AROUND 400NM.
DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN LATER TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P
(MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Tropical Cyclone Mona { Last Updated: 1/5/2019, 1:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTPS32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 013    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 13.8S 177.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 177.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 14.8S 178.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.5S 179.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 18.2S 179.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 19.7S 178.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.5S 175.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 22.7S 171.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 23.8S 165.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 177.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM NORTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVERTOP OF A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND A 051638Z 
91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A CENTRALLY LOCATED AND ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW T3.0 (45 
KNOTS) FROM KNES. TC 09P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND HAS A WELL ORGANIZED 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
REMAIN WARM, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 09P IS COMPLETING 
A CLOCKWISE LOOP AND IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING LOW SHEAR, GOOD 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 09P TO 
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 24, A 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL TAKE OVER AS 
THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK 
SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE SOUTHWEST, VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND CAUSE TC 09P TO GRADUALLY 
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER TAU 48. BY TAU 96, TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO 
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A 
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. PERSISTENT INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE 
WILL CAUSE TC 09P TO BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK DIRECTION THOUGH 
INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS VARY ON THE SHARPNESS AND TIMING OF THE 
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES OVER THE FORECAST 
PERIOD WITH A SPREAD OF AROUND 500NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE 
DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z 
AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Tropical Cyclone Pabuk { Last Updated: 1/5/2019, 1:30:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 36W (PABUK) WARNING NR 023
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 10.1N 96.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 96.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 10.9N 94.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 96.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 36W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
245 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR, ANDAMAN, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED
AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WEAK AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SHEARED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EIR SATELLITE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK INTENSITY OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW. THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED
INTO AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS)
AND IS EXPECTED TO GET WORSE ALONG ITS FORECAST POLEWARD TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, COOLER DRY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
FLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 36W HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC
WARNING CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 9 FEET.//

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Tropical Depression One { Last Updated: 1/6/2019, 7:00:00 AM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 

 

wtpn32 pgtw 061500
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical depression 01w (one) warning nr 008    
   01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   061200z --- near 5.6n 173.6e
     movement past six hours - 295 degrees at 02 kts
     position accurate to within 150 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over water
   repeat posit: 5.6n 173.6e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   070000z --- 5.8n 172.6e
   Max sustained winds - 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over water
   vector to 24 hr posit: 285 deg/ 08 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   071200z --- 6.2n 171.1e
   Max sustained winds - 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over water
    ---
remarks:
061500z position near 5.7n 173.3e.
Tropical depression (td) 01w (one), located approximately 169 nm 
east-southeast of Majuro, has tracked west-northwestward at 02 knots 
(kts) over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared (eir) 
satellite imagery shows limited convection without a discernible low 
level circulation center (LLCC). The initial position is placed with 
very low confidence using the eir imagery and a 061009z metop-b 
ascat image which showed troughing to the southeast of the current 
position and a broad area of 15-20 kt winds. The initial intensity 
is based on the ascat image and a pgtw Dvorak fix that is too weak 
to assign an intensity. The environment is marginally favorable and 
there is still a chance that a tropical cyclone may develop in the 
36-48 hour timeframe. Numerical model guidance suggests a weak 
circulation will track west-northwestward. Intensity guidance is 
split with HWRF showing no intensification while the COAMPS-GFS and 
COAMPS-navgem show a weak tropical cyclone developing, possibly as 
early as the 36-48 hour timeframe. This is the final warning on this 
system by the joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi. The system will 
be closely monitored for signs of regeneration. Maximum significant 
wave height at 061200z is 8 feet.//
Nnnn

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Tropical Cyclone Penny { Last Updated: 1/6/2019, 1:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 028    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 154.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 154.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 18.0S 152.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.7S 151.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 19.1S 149.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 19.1S 148.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 17.9S 146.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 153.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 477 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL FLARE OF CONVECTION DUE TO DIURNAL MAXIMUM 
THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061619Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD, 
RAGGED LLCC WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE FLARING CONVECTION AND 
A PARTIAL 061144Z ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF 30-34 KT 
WINDS TO SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. WHILE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T1.5 (25 KTS), THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE 
YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.6 (39 KTS). MODERATE (15 
TO 20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS ABATED AROUND TC 08P, WHICH 
IS ALSO EXPERIENCING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENABLING THE RECENT 
RETURN OF SOME DEEP CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 08P IS TRACKING 
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING 
FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS TC 08P TRACKS WESTWARD. VWS IS FORECAST TO 
DECREASE IN THE NEAR-TERM. MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING HWRF, COAMPS-
NAVGEM, AND COAMPS-GFS FORECAST SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK HOLDS THE INTENSITY STEADY AT 35 KTS. LATER IN THE 
FORECAST PERIOD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW ALOFT, INCREASING VWS, AND LAND 
INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD GIVEN THE RECENT SOUTHWESTERN MOTION, 
TOWARDS THE RECENT ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Tropical Cyclone Mona { Last Updated: 1/6/2019, 7:00:00 AM (Eastern Standard Time) }

999 
WTPS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 017
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 177.4W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 177.4W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 20.1S 176.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 21.5S 177.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 22.4S 178.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 22.8S 179.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 23.5S 176.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 177.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ERODING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EIR LOOP. A 061437Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC IS UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 45 KTS AGREES WITH THE KNES AND NFFN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS), BUT IS ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KTS). DESPITE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), INTENSIFICATION IS BEING
HINDERED BY HIGH (25-40 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 09P IS
TRANSITIONING FROM BEING STEERED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL RECURVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU
12. VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN THE NEAR TERM, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC
09P TO MAINTAIN A 45 KT INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU
36, TC 09P WILL CROSS THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SST ISOTHERM, VWS WILL
INCREASE, AND OUTFLOW WILL DIMINISH, LEADING TO FURTHER WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST, TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Tropical Cyclone Penny { Last Updated: 1/6/2019, 7:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTPS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 029    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 153.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 153.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 18.2S 151.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 18.8S 150.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 18.9S 148.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 18.7S 147.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 17.6S 145.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 152.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS 
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TUCKED UNDER A 
RECENT LARGE FLARE OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON 
THE NEARLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND A 062252Z AMSU 89GHZ 
IMAGE THAT SHOWS THE LLCC HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE EXPANSIVE DEEP 
CONVECTION AND A PARTIAL 062252Z ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED 30-34 AND 
35-39 KT WIND BARBS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER, SO 40 KT WINDS ARE 
LIKELY CLOSER TO THE CENTER. THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T2.0 (30 KTS), WHILE AUTOMATED DVORAK 
ESTIMATES YIELD T2.7 (41 KTS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS REDUCED 
FURTHER TO 10-15 KTS, WHICH ALONG WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS 
ENHANCING THE RECENT DEEPENING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 08P IS 
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE 
THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS TC 08P TRACKS 
WESTWARD. VWS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW IN THE NEAR TERM, AND TC 08P 
IS ACCORDINGLY FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A 40 KT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 
36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LAND 
INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. COAMPS-NAVGEM AND 
COAMPS-GFS FORECAST FURTHER SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, BUT HWRF NOW 
MAINTAINS INTENSITY THEN WEAKENS THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT 
AGREEMENT ON TRACK, WITH 100 NM SPREAD AT TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS 
AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 
09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Tropical Cyclone Mona { Last Updated: 1/6/2019, 7:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTPS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNING NR 018    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 176.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 176.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 20.5S 176.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 21.7S 177.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 22.5S 178.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.0S 179.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 176.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) UNDER 
WANING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 062111Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE 
WHICH SHOWS BANDING, BUT MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS AGREES WITH THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS), 
BUT IS ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). DESPITE EXCELLENT 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST), INTENSIFICATION IS BEING HINDERED BY HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 09P IS TRANSITIONING FROM BEING STEERED BY A 
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL RECURVE TO 
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 12. VWS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY, WHICH WILL 
ALLOW TC 09P TO MAINTAIN A 45 KT INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS. 
AFTER TAU 24, TC 09P WILL CROSS THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SST ISOTHERM, 
VWS WILL INCREASE, AND OUTFLOW WILL DIMINISH, LEADING TO FURTHER 
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS 
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST, AND IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS 
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 
19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Tropical Cyclone Desmond { Last Updated: 1/20/2019, 7:00:00 PM (Eastern Standard Time) }

000 
WTXS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 005    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 20.9S 38.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 38.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 19.3S 37.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 18.2S 37.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 17.3S 37.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 38.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM 
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
UNDER SOME THIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
KNES AND PGTW OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL 
OVERALL WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. 
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCES 
FOR TC 10S WILL BE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND POSSIBLE 
BINARY INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION (INVEST 93S), LOCATED 
NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN 
MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN 
INTENSITY NEAR 35 KTS UNTIL DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER MAKING 
LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE AT AROUND TAU 30. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
NAVGEM, WHICH IS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS, 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF 
THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO COMPENSATE FOR THE NAVGEM OUTLIER. SOMETIME 
AFTER 10S IS FORECASTED TO DISSIPATE, A SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE, 
POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF 93S AND THE REMNANTS OF 10S MERGING, IS 
EXPECTED TO FORM AND TRACK SOUTHWARD. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT 
THE END OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 13 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN

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